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 837 
 WTNT41 KNHC 051500
 TCDAT1
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
 
 Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data
 indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC
 this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind
 observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the
 initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone
 should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are
 expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours.  The cyclone is
 now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.
 
 The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt.  A
 north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward
 speed is expected during the next day or so.  A turn toward the
 north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few
 days.  The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous
 forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward
 thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.
 
 This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur.  For additional
 information, including warnings, consult products issued by the
 Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html
 
 Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by
 the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in
 French at WOCN41 CWHX.  For marine interests, additional
 information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
 National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
 header FZNT01 KWBC.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/1500Z 45.0N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  06/0000Z 47.0N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  06/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  07/0000Z 52.0N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  08/1200Z 60.5N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  09/1200Z 60.5N  52.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown/Pasch
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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