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 020 
 WTNT41 KNHC 050844
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
 
 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
 indicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The
 low-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain
 shield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the
 circulation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of
 83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong
 winds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set
 at 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete
 extratropical transition later today and should weaken.
 
 Arthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the
 northeast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this
 general track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a
 mid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur
 becoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours.
 
 Both intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical
 stage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0900Z 43.1N  66.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 45.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  06/0600Z 47.0N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  06/1800Z 49.5N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  07/0600Z 52.5N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  08/0600Z 60.0N  51.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  09/0600Z 58.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  10/0600Z 62.1N  43.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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