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 741 
 WTNT41 KNHC 041442
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
 
 The eye of Arthur remains evident in geostationary satellite imagery
 although the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed this
 morning.  The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
 measured 94-kt 700 mb flight-level winds in the southeastern
 quadrant, but it appears that these winds are not effectively mixing
 down to the surface, as peak SFMR surface winds have been 68 kt.
 Using a blend of the these data, the initial intensity has been
 reduced to 80 kt.  Arthur will be moving over cooler water and the
 shear will be significantly increasing through tonight, which should
 cause gradual weakening. The hurricane will also interact with a
 deep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be moving off
 the United States east coast later today.  This should cause the
 hurricane to complete transition into an extratropical cyclone in
 about 24 hours.  After that time, continued weakening is expected
 while the post-tropical cyclone moves over the North Atlantic.
 
 Arthur is moving northeastward with an initial motion of 040/21 kt.
 The hurricane should continue moving northeastward during the next
 24 to 36 hours ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough. The
 center of the cyclone is forecast to move over Nova Scotia on
 Saturday and track models are in good agreement on this portion of
 the forecast.  The track guidance become very divergent after 48
 hours, with the ECMWF taking the cyclone northward and northwestward
 while the GFS shows an east-northeastward motion near Newfoundland.
 Out of continuity for the previous forecasts, the NHC track
 continues to follow the eastward scenario shown by the GFS and GFS
 ensemble mean, but it now shows a somewhat slower motion by day 5.
 It is possible that this portion of the track will need to be
 adjusted in future forecasts.
 
 Hourly position updates and two-hourly intermediate advisories have
 been discontinued.  Three-hourly intermediate advisories will
 continue as long as coastal warnings remain in effect.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 37.7N  73.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 40.2N  70.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 44.0N  66.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  06/0000Z 46.1N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  06/1200Z 48.0N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  07/1200Z 55.0N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  08/1200Z 59.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/1200Z 62.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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