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 040 
 WTNT41 KNHC 040901
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
 
 Arthur still has a well-defined eye in radar imagery, and the
 cloud pattern features an area of cold cloud tops wrapping around
 the northern and western portions of the circulation as some dry air
 works its way into the southern semicircle. Before the Air Force
 Hurricane Hunters left Arthur, they measured flight-level winds of
 91 kt and SFMR winds of 82 kt, which support maintaining the initial
 intensity at 85 kt. The central pressure is set to 973 mb based on
 a measurement of 975.5 mb at an NOAA National Ocean Service station
 at Oregon Inlet with a wind of 35 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter
 aircraft will be sampling Arthur later this morning. Gradual
 weakening is expected today and tonight, and Arthur will complete
 extratropical transition by 36 hours. After passing Nova
 Scotia, post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North
 Atlantic.
 
 Arthur is accelerating northeastward, with an initial motion
 estimate of 040/20, and a northeastward motion is expected to
 continue for the next 48 hours as Arthur recurves ahead of an
 advancing mid-latitude trough. The track model guidance is in good
 agreement in taking the center of Arthur well offshore of the U.S.
 mid-Atlantic coast today and southeast of New England tonight before
 moving over Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that time, Arthur
 is expected to continue across Newfoundland and into the North
 Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance
 envelope through 72 hours and is close to the GEFS ensemble
 mean at days 4 and 5.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 36.0N  75.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 38.4N  72.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 42.2N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 45.5N  64.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  06/0600Z 47.5N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  07/0600Z 53.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  08/0600Z 59.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/0600Z 63.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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