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 691 
 WTNT41 KNHC 040301
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
 
 The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
 North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
 reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
 in the southeastern eyewall.  The lowest reported central pressure
 was 976 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity was
 increased to 85 kt.  Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
 20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
 infrared satellite imagery.
 
 Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
 a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
 initial motion is now 035/16.  A continued northeastward motion and
 acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours.  The
 forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
 during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
 about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
 hours.  After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
 its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic.  The
 forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
 center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.
 
 Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
 as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
 adjacent northwestern Atlantic.  After that, Arthur is expected to
 undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
 by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia.  After passing Nova
 Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
 North Atlantic.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0300Z 34.6N  76.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 36.7N  74.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  05/0000Z 40.0N  70.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  05/1200Z 43.7N  66.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  06/0000Z 46.2N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  07/0000Z 51.5N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  08/0000Z 57.5N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/0000Z 60.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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