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 597 
 WTNT21 KNHC 032053
 TCMAT1
 
 HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NANTUCKET ISLAND
 AND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM.
 
 ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA
 SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO POINT ACONI.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
 * PAMLICO SOUND
 * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
 * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
 VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
 * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
 * NANTUCKET
 * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO POINT
 ACONI
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
 AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
 LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
 QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
 COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
 SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  77.9W AT 03/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
 64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
 50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT.......110NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.
 12 FT SEAS..140NE 160SE 130SW  50NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  77.9W AT 03/2100Z
 AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  78.3W
 
 FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.3N  76.1W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  50NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.2N  72.6W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  80SE  40SW  30NW.
 34 KT...120NE 150SE  90SW  60NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.9N  68.0W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 80NE  90SE  40SW  30NW.
 34 KT...120NE 160SE 120SW  80NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.2N  64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE 120SE  80SW  60NW.
 34 KT...160NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 50.4N  56.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT...  0NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 56.5N  47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 60.0N  37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N  77.9W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
 
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