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 376 
 WTNT41 KNHC 032100
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
 
 The eye of Arthur has become more distinct in visible satellite
 imagery this afternoon, although the overall radar presentation has
 changed very little. The latest flight-level and SFMR wind
 observations are 84 kt and 82 kt respectively.  These data support
 maintaining the 80-kt initial intensity. Environmental conditions
 are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next
 12 to 18 hours and Arthur is still forecast to reach category two
 intensity as it nears the North Carolina coast.  Vertical shear is
 forecast to increase significantly by Friday night and weakening
 should commence by that time.  Arthur is expected to interact with
 an approaching deep-layer trough and should become a post-tropical
 cyclone within 48 hours. Steady weakening is anticipated after
 Arthur becomes post-tropical.
 
 Aircraft and radar fixes indicate that the initial motion is 020
 degrees at 11 kt, a little faster than before.  Arthur is expected
 to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of a deep-layer trough
 that will move into the eastern United States during the next day
 or so.  Although the models still remain in good agreement on the
 track of Arthur during the next couple of days, there has been a
 westward shift this cycle.  The new NHC track has been shifted
 westward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36
 hours.  The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North
 Carolina or the Outer Banks later tonight.   Beyond 36 hours, the
 NHC track has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not
 as far west as the GFS and ECMWF model trackers.
 
 While in most cases this westward shift in the track will be
 immaterial to impacts, it does mean that the hurricane's strongest
 winds are now more likely to be experienced along the Outer Banks,
 rather than remain offshore.
 
 NHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7
 pm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued
 on the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position
 updates.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/2100Z 33.4N  77.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 35.3N  76.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 38.2N  72.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 41.9N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 45.2N  64.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  06/1800Z 50.4N  56.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  07/1800Z 56.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  08/1800Z 60.0N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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