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 620 
 WTNT41 KNHC 031459
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
 
 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
 that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning.  The Air Force
 plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt.  The
 NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have
 measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these
 data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is
 forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the
 next 24 hours.  This should allow for some additional
 intensification.  The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for
 Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or
 closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered
 intensity guidance.  After that time, Arthur will be moving over
 cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to
 increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be
 moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast
 to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should
 steadily weaken after that.
 
 Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little
 faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although
 the motion over the last hour or two was northward.  The hurricane
 should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the
 deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast.  The models are in
 good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North
 Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight
 westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland
 over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the
 models increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the
 western side of the guidance.  The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the
 right.  The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but
 has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five.
 The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over
 portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days.
 
 Users are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since
 the associated hazards extend well away from the center.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 32.4N  78.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 33.8N  77.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 36.3N  74.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 39.4N  70.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 42.7N  66.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  06/1200Z 48.5N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  07/1200Z 55.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  08/1200Z 60.0N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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