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 239 
 WTNT41 KNHC 030859
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
 
 Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
 indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft
 showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center,
 and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at
 8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65
 kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty
 maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level
 air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar
 presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some
 gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while
 the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm
 waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically
 as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
 of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show
 Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC
 intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close
 to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little
 below the consensus after that time.
 
 Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is
 now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur
 should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer
 trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this
 scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
 remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close
 to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the
 center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks
 late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate
 northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the
 northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the
 Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end
 of the period.
 
 The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the
 extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 31.3N  79.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 32.5N  78.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 34.7N  76.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 37.5N  72.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 40.9N  67.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 47.5N  60.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  07/0600Z 54.0N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  08/0600Z 60.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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