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 697 
 WTNT41 KNHC 030255
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
 
 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
 along with satellite data, indicate that Arthur is very near
 hurricane strength.  On one side, the central pressure has fallen to
 988 mb, there were a few estimates of hurricane force winds from
 the SFMR instrument on the Air Force plane, and there are several
 satellite intensity estimates of 65-75 kt. On the other side, the
 flight-level winds from the two aircraft did not support hurricane
 strength, and the SFMR winds from the NOAA plane were also below
 hurricane strength.  Given the conflicting data, the initial
 intensity is held at 60 kt.  Another aircraft is scheduled to
 investigate Arthur around 06Z.
 
 The initial motion is now 360/7.  Arthur is moving through a
 weakness in the subtropical ridge towards the westerlies over the
 eastern United States. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone
 should recurve northeastward ahead of a deep-layer baroclinic
 trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes and New England.
 While the guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, the
 center of the guidance envelope has again shifted a little westward
 toward the North Carolina coast.  The GFS has made a rather
 significant shift since the previous run, and it now brings the
 center of Arthur across eastern North Carolina.  The new forecast
 track is shifted a little closer to the coast, but it will stay in
 the center of the guidance envelope to the east of the GFS.
 
 Coastal radar data shows that Arthur is having trouble maintaining a
 closed eyewall, which is likely due to continued entrainment of dry
 air. However, the storm should remain in an area of light vertical
 wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36
 hours or so. Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for additional
 strengthening during that time similar to the previous forecast.
 After 48 hours, Arthur should merge with the baroclinic trough over
 the Canadian Maritimes and become extratropical.  The intensities
 and wind radii during the extratropical phase have been modified
 based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at:
 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 30.6N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 31.7N  78.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 33.5N  77.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 36.0N  74.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 39.0N  70.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 45.5N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  07/0000Z 51.0N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  08/0000Z 55.5N  50.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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