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 485 
 WTNT41 KNHC 022054
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
 
 Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again
 sending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is
 gradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite
 images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized
 with an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the
 above information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60
 knots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the
 vicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant
 intensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment
 of warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for
 Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global
 models, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone
 significantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves
 near the North Carolina coast.
 
 Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,
 steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical
 ridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and
 move northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded
 within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the
 guidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official
 forecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of
 Arthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted
 the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at:
 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/2100Z 29.7N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 30.7N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 32.4N  78.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 34.5N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 37.2N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 43.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 49.0N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  07/1800Z 53.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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