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 681 
 WTNT41 KNHC 021459
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
 
 Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
 observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
 indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
 knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
 semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
 ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.
 
 The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
 the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
 warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
 the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
 the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
 the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
 tropical characteristics thereafter.  The NHC intensity forecast is
 very similar to the consensus of the models.
 
 Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt.  The synoptic reasoning
 from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
 accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
 Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
 the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
 NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
 coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
 forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
 require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
 area under hurricane watch.
 
 The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
 available at:
 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml?
 inundation#contents
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 29.1N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 30.1N  78.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 31.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 33.5N  76.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 36.0N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 42.0N  66.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 47.0N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  07/1200Z 51.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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