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 766 
 WTNT41 KNHC 020857
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
 
 Despite a somewhat ragged appearance on satellite imagery, Arthur
 has strengthened overnight. Data from two ASCAT passes between 02
 and 03 UTC showed a broad area of 45-50 kt winds east and northeast
 of the center. In addition, NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
 Hunter aircraft have found surface winds in the 45-50 kt range to
 the south and northeast of the center, while also finding the
 central pressure has fallen to about 996 mb. Based on all of
 these data, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.
 
 Arthur is still suffering the effects of dry air aloft being
 entrained into the western half of the circulation, which
 features only limited cold cloud tops. The primary convective band
 is situated east and southeast of the center, and some semblance of
 an eye has been visible in satellite and radar imagery and was
 reported by the aircraft. This lopsided structure suggests that
 Arthur will not strengthen quickly in the short term. However, given
 an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind
 shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a
 hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By
 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into a high shear environment ahead
 of an advancing mid/upper-level trough, which should result in
 weakening during the extratropical transition process.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aid IVCN
 through the period.
 
 Arthur has begun moving steadily northward at around 5 kt. The
 overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical
 cyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours
 and then gradually accelerate northeastward between the
 aforementioned trough and a strengthening ridge to the east. The
 track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
 this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
 direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
 envelope through 48 hours.
 
 Given the new NHC forecast, hurricane and tropical storm watches
 have been issued for portions of the coasts of South and North
 Carolina. Warnings may be required for portions of these areas
 later today.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0900Z 28.4N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 29.3N  79.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 30.5N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 32.1N  78.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 34.2N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 40.0N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  06/0600Z 46.0N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  07/0600Z 50.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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