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 251 
 WTNT41 KNHC 020252
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a
 complex structure this evening.  A mid-level cyclonic circulation
 accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N
 78.8W.  However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in
 the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi
 west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
 Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday
 morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the
 arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
 
 The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/2.  The track guidance
 models remain in good agreement on a large mid/upper-level trough
 digging southeastward into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states
 during the next 72 hours, while a subtropical ridge east of the
 Carolinas gradually strengthens. The combination of these two
 systems is expected steer Arthur generally northward for 24 hours or
 so, followed by a turn toward the northeast and gradual
 acceleration. The combination of the lack of motion over the past
 6-12 hours and the slightly more eastward initial position have
 resulted in some eastward shift of the track guidance envelope.  As
 a result, the new forecast track is also shifted slightly to the
 east from the previous forecast. The official forecast is near the
 center of the track guidance envelope and remains close to the
 various consensus models.
 
 Arthur is expected to be in an environment of light northwesterly
 vertical wind shear for the next 60-72 hours.  This should allow for
 continued development.  However, satellite total precipitable water
 data suggests that pockets of dry air remain near the cyclone, and
 these could hinder development.  Given these competing factors, the
 new intensity forecast is changed little from the previous forecast
 and calls for Arthur to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and
 reach its peak intensity in about 72 hours.  After that time, the
 cyclone should undergo extratropical transition and weaken as it
 merges with the mid/upper-level trough.
 
 Based on the new forecast track, additional watches and warnings
 are not necessary for the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts
 at this time.  However, tropical storm or hurricane watches will
 likely be required for portions of these areas on Wednesday.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0300Z 27.9N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 28.6N  79.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 29.7N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 31.0N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 32.8N  77.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  05/0000Z 37.5N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  06/0000Z 43.0N  64.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  07/0000Z 47.5N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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