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 445 
 WTNT41 KNHC 012053
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 Although radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
 pattern of Arthur has changed little since the previous advisory...
 an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
 cyclone this afternoon has found that flight-level and SFMR surface
 winds in the southeastern quadrant that support increasing the
 intensity to 45 kt. In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
 around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
 been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
 significant turbulence.
 
 Arthur has been drifting northwestward at 325/02 kt. No significant
 change has been made to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
 The latest reliable numerical models remain in good agreement on
 large mid-level trough digging southeastward into the northeastern
 and mid-Atlantic states during the next 72 hours, while a
 subtropical ridge east of the Carolinas gradually strengthens. The
 combination of these two systems is expected to steadily increase
 the southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
 and the extreme western Atlantic. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
 forecast to accelerate rapidly northeastward ahead of the
 aforementioned trough as an extratropical cyclone. The official
 forecast track is again just an update of the previous advisory
 track, and remains in the middle of the tightly packed guidance
 envelope and close to the consensus model TVCA.
 
 Northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually abate
 over the next 48 hours, allowing Arthur to develop an upper-level
 outflow pattern that is conducive to strengthening. The primary
 inhibiting factor will be the occasional intrusions of dry mid-level
 air to the north of the cyclone penetrating into the center and
 briefly disrupting the inner-core convection. However, the global
 and regional models are forecasting the inner core region to
 moisten significantly by 36-48 hours, which should allow Arthur to
 strengthen into a hurricane while the cyclone is over warm SSTs and
 in light shear conditions. After 72 hours, Arthur will be be moving
 over cooler water and is forecast to experience vertical wind shear
 in excess of 30 kt, which should induce at least steady weakening.
 The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 27.8N  79.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 28.3N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 29.2N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 30.4N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 32.1N  78.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 36.6N  73.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  05/1800Z 42.2N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  06/1800Z 46.8N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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