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 097 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010841
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
 of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours.  The main area of
 deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
 circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
 enhanced infrared images.  Surface observations and Doppler radar
 velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
 and the current intensity is held at 30 kt.  This is also in
 agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
 objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.
 
 There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
 guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
 260/2.  The overall steering scenario seems relatively
 straightforward.  A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
 the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
 to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days.  This
 should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
 north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
 days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
 increase in forward speed later in the forecast period.  The
 official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
 the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.
 
 Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
 with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
 during the next 72 hours or so.  The official intensity forecast
 now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
 latest intensity model consensus.  By the end of the forecast
 period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
 with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
 extratropical transition.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 27.6N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 27.9N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 28.5N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 29.5N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 30.8N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 34.3N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 44.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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