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 316 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010314
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
 
 Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east
 coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized
 during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has
 developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of
 the circulation.  Based on these data, advisories are being
 initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic
 hurricane season.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is
 in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve
 reconnaissance aircraft mission.
 
 The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of
 days seems to have slowed this evening.  The initial motion
 estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the
 depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early
 Tuesday.  After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the
 western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward
 then northward.  A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to
 approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should
 cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate.  The model
 guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is
 still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to
 the coast of the southeastern United States.
 
 Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
 are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few
 days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on
 Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity
 guidance.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the
 SHIPS/LGEM guidance.  Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is
 forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become
 extratropical by day 5.
 
 Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of
 east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the
 next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions
 of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the
 southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this
 system.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0300Z 27.6N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/1200Z 27.6N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/0000Z 28.0N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  02/1200Z 28.8N  79.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  03/0000Z 30.1N  79.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  04/0000Z 33.0N  78.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  05/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  06/0000Z 43.0N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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