Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 182 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010258
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
  
 THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
 PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
 IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION.  THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST
 OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z
 BUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD
 TOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS.  OTHER
 LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE
 SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE
 CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.
 ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
 NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
 ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE.  DATA FROM
 THE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE
 MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.
 
 LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE
 CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW
 LONG IT WILL LAST.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT
 MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF
 THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF
 CAMPECHE.  ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER. 
 THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AS A
 RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND
 CALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A
 COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
 SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.  IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST
 A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE
 BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL
 STORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 18.4N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N  93.6W    30 KT...NEAR COAST
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 18.2N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for ARTHUR

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman