062 
 WTNT41 KNHC 301442
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT
 ISLA LOBOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE HAS MADE LANDFALL
 ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO.  THE STATION REPORTED A MINIMUM
 PRESSURE OF 993 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH...AND
 BASED ON THIS AND A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.  SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE VORTEX
 IS TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT...AS THE APPARENT CENTER IN
 SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER LOCATION INDICATED BY THE
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  
 ARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH AN OVERALL MOTION
 OF 270/6.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U. S.
 SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
 CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.
  
 ARLENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WITH THE CYCLONE
 DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY 36 HR.  SEVERAL
 OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE
 PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
 SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR
 A NEW SYSTEM IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME.  EITHER WAY...SIGNIFICANT
 DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/1500Z 21.6N  97.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  01/0000Z 21.4N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  01/1200Z 21.2N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN