760 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 041451
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
 800 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015
 
 Andres continues to weaken. The mid-level center of the cyclone
 appears to have decoupled from the low-level circulation about 12
 hours ago, and only a small area of deep convection remains nearly
 two degrees removed from the center.  The initial intensity is
 lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates
 and on the assumption of some decrease in the winds since an
 overnight ASCAT pass.  Strong west-southwesterly shear and very
 unfavorable thermodynamic factors should result in a continued spin
 down of the cyclone, and global models show the circulation of
 Andres degenerating into an open trough between 48 and 72 hours.
 The NHC official forecast shows remnant low status in 12 hours and
 dissipation a day earlier than the previous forecast.
 
 Andres is drifting toward the east, and the initial motion estimate
 is 095/03. Now that Andres has become fully decoupled and therefore
 a shallow cyclone, it should be steered by the low-level flow which
 is partially controlled by a low-level ridge to its northwest.
 However, Andres should feel the tug by the large circulation of
 Hurricane Blanca well to the east.  The resultant flow should
 produce a general southeastward motion until dissipation.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 20.1N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 20.0N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  05/1200Z 19.7N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  06/0000Z 19.1N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  06/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  07/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain