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 474 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 031454
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
 800 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015
 
 The deep convection associated with Andres continues to shrink in
 size and is limited to the northeastern semicircle.  Dvorak
 estimates correspondingly have fallen with a blend of the ADT,
 SAB, and TAFB numbers indicating an intensity of about 50 kt.
 Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it
 is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable
 air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear.  Steady
 weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by
 Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days.  The
 official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable
 intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous
 advisory.
 
 Andres is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt, primarily due to
 steering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast.
 However, the cyclone will be situated Thursday and Friday within a
 col region with little steering flow and Andres should
 meander.  In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should
 move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large
 circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east.  The official track
 forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track
 guidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly
 clustered.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 20.0N 125.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 20.1N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  05/1200Z 19.7N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  06/1200Z 19.0N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  07/1200Z 18.4N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea
 
 
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