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 219 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 291449
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
 900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
 
 
 Andres is just below hurricane strength.  Although an eye feature
 is no longer apparent in infrared and visible satellite images, the
 associated convection has been deepening during the past few hours.
 Microwave images show that the structure of Andres is asymmetric
 with well-defined banding to the south of the center and limited
 more fragmented bands to the north of the center.  A blend of the
 latest Dvorak estimates and ADT values still yield an intensity
 estimate of 60 kt.
 
 The SHIPS model indicates that Andres is currently experiencing
 about 15 kt of northerly shear, which is likely part of the reason
 why the storm has leveled off in intensity for the time being. This
 shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, but it
 should lessen some thereafter.  Therefore, slow strengthening is
 expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone remains
 over warm water.  Beyond a couple of days, Andres is expected to
 move over cooler water and into a drier and more stable airmass.
 These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the system
 to weaken.  The official intensity forecast is a little lower than
 the previous one, and lies at the high end of the model guidance.
 
 Andres continues on a west-northwestward track at about 8 kt.  A
 weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause the storm to move
 northwestward during the next day or two.  After that time, a turn
 back to the west-northwest is predicted when the ridge restrengthens
 to the north of the storm.  The model guidance is in good agreement
 overall, and the official forecast is similar to the previous one
 and lies close to the consensus aids.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  30/0000Z 13.3N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  30/1200Z 14.3N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  31/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  31/1200Z 16.2N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  01/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  02/1200Z 18.2N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  03/1200Z 18.8N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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