517 
 WTNT41 KNHC 080234
 TCDAT1
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013
  
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT
 ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS
 LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. 
 HOWEVER OUR BEST CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
 FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
 ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
 EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO
 CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH REMAIN IN
 FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.   
 
 ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE
 DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE...STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL
 OCCURRING FARTHER OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THE 30-KT FORWARD MOTION...
 THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL CLOSE TO 40 KT. 
 GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED OR MERGING WITH
 ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN 72
 HOURS.
  
 THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL
 FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND. 
 HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
 COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING
 PRODUCTS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/0300Z 38.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  12H  08/1200Z 41.7N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  09/0000Z 45.4N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  09/1200Z 46.8N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  10/0000Z 47.0N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  11/0000Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH