307 
 WTNT41 KNHC 060850
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
 400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
 HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
 WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
 REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
 EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
 ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
 ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
 HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL 
 INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
 CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
 COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. 
 
 FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
 TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
 STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
 BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
 MODELS.  
  
 REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
 PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
 FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
 UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
 COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
 PENINSULA.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0900Z 27.0N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  07/0600Z 32.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  36H  07/1800Z 36.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  48H  08/0600Z 39.0N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  09/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  10/0600Z 46.5N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  11/0600Z 52.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA