513 
 WTNT41 KNHC 101446
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
 
 NOAA Doppler radar, surface data and visible satellite imagery
 indicate that Ana continues to move over land near the South
 Carolina-North Carolina border.  Surface observations suggest that
 the cyclone is barely of tropical storm intensity.  Since the
 center is expected to be over land at least through tonight,
 weakening to a tropical depression is likely later today.  Ana is
 forecast to move back over the Atlantic in about 36 hours, but
 regeneration after that time is unlikely due to cool waters and
 strong shear.  The global models show the system degenerating into
 an open trough and becoming absorbed by a large mid-latitude low
 over Atlantic Canada in about 60 hours.
 
 Ana appears to have turned toward the north but the forward speed
 continues to be quite slow, around 4 kt.  The flow ahead of a broad
 500 mb trough should cause Ana or its remnant to turn toward the
 northeast with some acceleration over the next couple of days.  The
 official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,
 and is quite close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.
 
 Elevated water levels, high surf, and rip currents will continue
 to pose a threat over portions of the North and South Carolina
 coasts today.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/1500Z 34.1N  78.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 34.9N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  24H  11/1200Z 36.2N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  12/0000Z 38.2N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 41.0N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch