Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 179 
 WTNT41 KNHC 081459
 TCDAT1
 
 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
 1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015
 
 Satellite images indicate that Ana is starting to show signs of
 transforming into a tropical storm, with a more compact structure
 and tighter convective bands near the center.  In addition,
 aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the maximum wind band is
 becoming sharper and migrating inward.  The storm still has
 less-intense convection than most tropical cyclones, however, and is
 still co-located with an upper-level low; consequently Ana remains
 best classified as subtropical for now. The maximum winds are
 estimated to be 40 kt based on the SFMR and flight-level
 data.
 
 Ana has been meandering for the past several hours under a blocking
 ridge along the U.S. east coast, although recently the storm has
 drifted eastward toward a convective burst.  This ridge will
 slowly move eastward over the next couple of days, which
 should steer the storm generally slowly northwestward.  Model
 guidance is in good agreement in bringing Ana to the coast of the
 Carolinas in about two days.  After that, a strong trough should
 cause Ana to move more quickly to the north and east late Sunday
 and into early next week. No significant changes were required to
 the previous forecast track, which remains close to the model
 consensus. Extratropical transition is anticipated in about four
 days - in line with the global model guidance.
 
 Some strengthening of Ana is possible since the cyclone is embedded
 within an environment of cold upper-level temperatures, leading to
 more thunderstorms than one would expect over the marginally warm
 waters.  However, there is quite a bit of dry air around the storm,
 which could help limit convection.  Most of the guidance shows some
 intensification during the next day or so, and the official forecast
 does the same. As Ana approaches the coast, some weakening seems
 probable due to the storm moving over cooler shelf waters. The
 latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, although a little
 higher at 36 and 48 hr to reflect the latest guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/1500Z 31.5N  77.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 31.8N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 32.1N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 32.6N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z 33.2N  78.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z 35.1N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  12/1200Z 39.0N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  13/1200Z 44.5N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for ANA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman