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 341 
 WTPA45 PHFO 242039
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
 1100 AM HST FRI OCT 24 2014
  
 ANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT
 IMAGES HAVE ALSO SHOWN TRANSIENT WARM SPOTS APPEARING IN THE
 INFRARED IMAGERY. AN SSMIS PASS FROM 1912 UTC INDICATED AN
 EYEWALL-LIKE STRUCTURE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. EARLIER MICROWAVE
 PASSES FROM 1812 AND 1557 UTC SHOWED THIS FEATURE TO BE A LITTLE
 BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES
 CAME IN AT 45 KT/35 KT/30 KT FROM PHFO/SAB/JTWC. CIMSS SATCON WAS 49
 KT WITH THE AMSU COMPONENT INDICATING 58 KT. GIVEN THE MICROWAVE
 STRUCTURE FROM THE MOST RECENT PASSES AND THE OCCASIONAL WARM
 SPOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SATCON AND AMSU
 ESTIMATES AND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
  
 THE INTIAL MOTION IS 020/11 KT AS ANA MOVES BETWEEN A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
 SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST.  THIS IS A FASTER MOVEMENT FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND SIGNALS THE START OF AN EXPECTED
 ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE RATHER
 TIGHTLY PACKED...EVEN BEYOND DAY 3 WHEN ANA TRANSITIONS TO AN
 EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
 NUDGE TO ALIGN IT CLOSER TO THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS. BEYOND 36
 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
 GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AS ANA HEADS TOWARD
 THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.
  
 IN THE SHORT TERM...ANA WILL BE UNDER MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 AND IS TRANSITING MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
 CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A MAINTENANCE OF STRONG
 TROPICAL STORM INTENSITIES...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
 GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...ANA SHOULD BEGIN AN
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ALONG A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE IT OVER
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.
 THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS IS LARGELY BASED ON
 NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW
 WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION AT 120
 HOURS. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/2100Z 29.7N 169.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 31.5N 167.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 34.5N 163.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 38.4N 157.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 42.9N 148.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  27/1800Z 47.9N 138.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  28/1800Z 50.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA
  
 
 
 
 
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