776 
 WTPA45 PHFO 210840
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
 1100 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014
  
 DEEP CONVECTION IS TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 
 NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE LLCC...WHICH LIES EXPOSED ABOUT 100 MILES 
 SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ANA 
 HAS THE OVERALL SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL 
 STORM FEELING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. 
 DVORAK-DERIVED INTENSITIES FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS ARE 
 3.0/45 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL 
 FOLLOW SUIT.
 
 WHILE THE 12 HOUR MOTION FOR ANA IS 275/05 KT...SATELLITE ANIMATION 
 SHOWS THIS SYSTEM HAS ACTUALLY BEGUN A VERY WOBBLY MOTION AVERAGING 
 ABOUT 305/07 KT WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FAR 
 NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY BEING DISPLACED FARTHER 
 NORTHWARD...ASSUMING A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION...AS DEEP 
 TROUGHING WEST OF THE DATELINE CLIMBS NORTHWARD. FOR SOME TIME...ANA 
 HAS BEEN FORECAST TO RESPOND TO THIS RIDGE DISPLACEMENT BY GRADUALLY 
 RECURVING THROUGH DAY 5. WITH THIS RECENT MOTION...IT NOW APPEARS 
 THAT ANA IS MAKING THIS ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FIRST 
 STEP TOWARD RECURVATURE. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING ANA OVER 
 THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE 
 SHOALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK 
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN DEVIATES A 
 BIT LEFT OF IT BEGINNING WITH TAU 48...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR SHIFT IN 
 ECMWF AND TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN 
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST 
 PERIOD AS ANA INTERACTS MORE AND MORE WITH THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE 
 FOR THE RIDGE DISPLACEMENT.
 
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH SHIPS 
 AND LGEM KEEPING ANA ON THE WEAK SIDE WHILE HWRF AND GFDL BUILD ANA 
 BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A MIDDLE 
 PATH. ANA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS STRONG 
 SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS. GRADUAL SYSTEM STRENGTHENING 
 IS THEN FORECAST AS VERTICAL SHEAR EASES...ALLOWING ANA TO BENEFIT 
 FROM ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. 
 BY DAY 5...ANA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT EXPERIENCES STRONG 
 NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WE 
 FORECAST ANA WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT 120 HOURS AS 
 IT NEARS 40N.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 21.0N 164.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 21.6N 165.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 22.8N 166.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  22/1800Z 24.4N 167.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  23/0600Z 26.2N 168.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  24/0600Z 29.9N 166.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  25/0600Z 33.2N 163.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  26/0600Z 37.2N 156.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL