400 
 WTPA45 PHFO 150250
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
 500 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014
  
 ANA CONTINUES TO PRESENT A SATELLITE SIGNATURE CONSISTENT WITH THAT 
 OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
 PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES ARE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND PGTW...WHILE SAB CAME IN WITH 
 4.0/65 KT. AS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE 
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT FOR 
 THIS CYCLE. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1930Z WAS HELPFUL IN REFINING THE 
 WIND RADII FOR THIS PACKAGE.
 
 ANA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST...TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN
 THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
 IS 270/09 KT...WITH ANA BEING STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED
 TO ITS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR...NEAR 50 KT... 
 CURRENTLY EXISTS BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ANA IS 
 NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXPOSED TO THIS AREA OF DEBILITATING SHEAR. 
 INSTEAD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MINIMAL SHEAR OVER THE 
 SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 3 AS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS 
 TREKS STEADILY WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY AND 
 SATURDAY...WITH ANA THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY 
 NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A 
 MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE 
 STEERING CURRENTS WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SHEAR PROFILE THAT IS 
 EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODEST WEAKENING. THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION 
 BETWEEN ANA AND THE TROUGH INTRODUCES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY TO THE 
 TRACK FORECAST AT LONGER RANGES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS VERY 
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF TRACK GUIDANCE... 
 WHICH IS SHOWING LESS SPREAD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. 
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND PRESENTED BY THE ICON 
 CONSENSUS. ANA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY 
 AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM 
 TO SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST SATURDAY
 AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR...A SLIGHTLY 
 DRIER ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED DUE 
 TO PROXIMITY TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
 
 INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
 THE PROGRESS OF ANA.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0300Z 13.9N 145.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 14.1N 146.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 14.5N 147.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 14.9N 149.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 15.6N 151.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 17.5N 154.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z 19.5N 156.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  20/0000Z 21.5N 158.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD