382 
 WTNT42 KNHC 170250
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
  
 RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
 ANA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING QUICKLY AT
 AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/23.  ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED...IT IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
 AXIS AND APPEARS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTER
 APPEARS REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR BUT THIS IS
 LIKELY DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION RATHER THAN ONE AT THE
 SURFACE.  AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER NOT STOP ADVISORIES WHILE
 THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER IF
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THOSE ISLANDS CONFIRM THE LACK OF A
 CENTER...ADVISORIES WILL BE TERMINATED EARLY MONDAY.
  
 VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING...AND A
 FEW SUCH AS THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER ABOUT
 36 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANA SHOULD BE MOVING
 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN 24-36 HOURS...AND IT IS
 DOUBTFUL THAT ITS CIRCULATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THAT ISLAND
 INTACT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ANA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY
 36 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS CROSSING LAND...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
 COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AT ANY TIME.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM
 TRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT
 THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
  
 TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT
 ANA WILL NOT RE-STRENGTHEN OR UNTIL IT PASSES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
 LATER TONIGHT.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 16.0N  61.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 16.7N  64.4W    30 KT
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.1N  68.6W    30 KT
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.6N  72.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     19/0000Z 21.2N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  81.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     21/0000Z 26.0N  84.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     22/0000Z 28.0N  86.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG