838 
 WTNT42 KNHC 160904
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
 500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
  
 AN ASCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTED THAT ANA WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM
 AT THAT TIME...BUT IT CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH VERY
 LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...AND MAY HAVE WEAKENED.  FOR NOW
 HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  THE ENVIRONMENT
 THROUGH WHICH ANA IS MOVING IS VERY DRY...AND THE SYSTEM HAS HAD
 DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION.  THERE IS STILL INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION...AND SO
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.  LATER ON...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LAND.
 
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ANA
 REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
 GUIDANCE.   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 14.6N  53.8W    35 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N  56.6W    35 KT
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 15.9N  60.4W    40 KT
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 16.8N  64.6W    40 KT
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.6N  68.2W    45 KT
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N  76.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N  85.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN