019 
 WTNT42 KNHC 130840
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
 500 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS A RATHER MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING
 WITH JUST A FEW CELLS AROUND THE EXPOSED CENTER.   SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 LOWERED TO 25 KT.  IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
 SOON... THE SYSTEM COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. 
 ASSUMING THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT
 FEW DAYS IS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING WITH
 GRADUALLY INCREASING WATER TEMPERATURES WEST OF 40W AND PERHAPS A
 DECREASE IN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION
 EVENTUALLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS A PRETTY LOW
 CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT EVEN
 SURVIVE THE DAY.
  
 THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A
 TWELVE-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
 SUGGEST THAT THIS WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR SO
 WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AS A WEAKNESS
 DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE
 THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED
 SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND HAVE SHIFTED THE
 TRACK EQUATORWARD AS A RESULT.  THE HWRF CONTINUES ON ITS OWN BY
 MOVING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE REST OF THE
 GUIDANCE IS PRETTY WELL-CLUSTERED ON A MORE SOUTHERN PATH.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND WITH MANY RELIABLE
 MODELS STILL SOUTH OF THE NHC TRACK...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
 SEE THE FORECAST MOVE FARTHER SOUTH LATER ON.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0900Z 14.0N  36.9W    25 KT
  12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.0N  38.5W    25 KT
  24HR VT     14/0600Z 14.2N  40.7W    30 KT
  36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.4N  43.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.9N  45.9W    40 KT
  72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N  52.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N  65.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE