016 
 WTNT42 KNHC 121442
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
 1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SHOWS A CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE
 IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DISPLACING
 THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
 SAB. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0812Z DID NOT SHOW
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS THAT LOOKED RELIABLE. THUS...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...
 MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE COMING
 FROM THE NORTH...REPRESENTING POSSIBLY MORE STABLE AIR PASSING OVER
 COOLER WATERS. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS
 FEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
 AFRICA.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH
 SIDE OF A LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
 FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.  AFTER THAT
 TIME...THE MODELS FORECAST A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESSES IN
 THE RIDGE THAT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE
 TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
 THERE ARE TWO CLUSTERS IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE HWRF...BAMD...LBAR...
 AND CLIPER CALL FOR AN EARLIER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND AS A
 RESULT THEY WIND UP NORTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE BY DAY 5.  THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST...IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE CLUSTER IN
 BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC. 
 ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY...THE UKMET SUGGESTS AN ALTERNATIVE
 SCENARIO...WITH THE DEPRESSION WEAKENING AND THE REMNANTS MOVING
 WEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
 27C...AND THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASE TO 28C AFTER
 72 HR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO ENCOUNTER
 MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...FIRST
 FROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.  ALSO...WATER
 VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS TO THE
 NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE LATTER TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THE
 SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO STRENGTHEN...AND AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS AN INTENSITY OF HIGHER THAN 55 KT
 DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
 TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY IN 72
 HR...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 14.3N  33.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.2N  35.4W    35 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N  37.6W    35 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N  40.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  42.8W    45 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N  48.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N  54.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N  60.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN