088 
 WTNT42 KNHC 111010
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
 600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
  
 FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
 PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
 TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
 SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
 WEAK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
 GUIDANCE TOOLS.  AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
 THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IF THE
 CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
 ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST.  ON
 THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
 IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
 HERE.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11.  THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
 LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
 FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LATER IN THE
 PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
 THE BAM TRACKS.  THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1000Z 14.4N  28.6W    25 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.6N  30.1W    30 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N  32.3W    35 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N  34.6W    35 KT
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.2N  36.8W    40 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  41.2W    45 KT
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N  45.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N  49.5W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH