733 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 290231
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014
 
 The cloud tops of Amanda have been warming during the past few
 hours with almost no deep convection near the center.  Although a
 well-defined mid-level center is apparent on the latest satellite
 imagery, this feature is well to the northeast of the low-level
 circulation as indicated by ASCAT data and a recent SSMI/S pass.
 Based on the current satellite trends, the initial intensity is
 lowered to 40 kt, a bit below the recent Dvorak estimates.
 
 The microwave data show that Amanda is moving to the northeast at a
 little slower pace of about 5 kt.  This motion should continue on
 Thursday ahead of a mid-level trough.  This trough is expected to
 moving away from Amanda by Friday, which would leave the storm in
 light steering currents.  After that time, the weakened storm will
 probably turn to the west and west-southwest as a low- to mid-level
 ridge builds over the eastern Pacific.  There have not been any
 significant changes to the guidance, and the latest NHC forecast is
 very close to the previous one.
 
 Amanda should continue to weaken for the next couple of days due to
 moderate shear, dry air aloft and marginal SSTs.  While the shear is
 forecast to weaken some in a day or so, the storm will likely have
 entrained a significant amount of dry air by then, and it probably
 won't be able to take advantage of the decreased shear.  The cyclone
 should become a remnant low in a couple of days due to these
 marginal environment conditions. Most of the guidance shows steady
 weakening and the official NHC prediction follows suit, at or below
 the intensity consensus throughout the period.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0300Z 16.3N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  29/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  30/0000Z 17.2N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  30/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  31/0000Z 17.6N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  01/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  02/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake