243 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 282037
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014
 
 Amanda continues to gradually lose strength.  Deep convection has
 decreased in coverage during the last several hours, and the
 cloud tops are not as cold as they were this morning.  Dvorak
 Final T-numbers were 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB,
 respectively.  In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass at 1642 UTC showed
 maximum reliable winds in the 45-50 kt range.  Based on these data,
 the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt.
 
 The low-level center of Amanda, which appeared somewhat elongated
 in the scatterometer pass, remains near the southern edge of the
 main area of thunderstorms.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
 about 15 to 20 kt of south-southwesterly shear.  Slow weakening is
 expected to remain the theme during the next few days due to the
 combination of shear, dry air, and cooler water along the forecast
 track.  The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
 one and in line with most of the guidance.
 
 The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast, with the
 latest initial motion estimate being 035/7.  A mid- to upper-level
 trough to the west of Amanda is expected to keep the cyclone moving
 northeastward or north-northeastward during the next day or two.
 After that time, the weakening system is expected to reverse its
 course and turn southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds
 to its north.  Only slight changes were made to the previous
 official track forecast and it lies fairly close to the multi-model
 consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 15.8N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 16.3N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 16.9N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  31/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1800Z 16.7N 110.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi