927 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 280834
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014
 
 A 0457 UTC AMSU pass confirmed that Amanda is a sheared tropical
 storm, with the low-level center displaced to the south of the deep
 convection due to about 15 kt of southerly shear.  The convection
 itself increased beginning around 0100 UTC, and now the center is
 located beneath the cirrus canopy.  The initial intensity is held
 at 60 kt based mainly on SAB's Dvorak classification of T3.5/4.0
 using a shear pattern.
 
 Modest south to southwesterly shear is expected to continue
 affecting Amanda for the next 24-36 hours.  The shear could relax
 somewhat after 36 hours, but Amanda will have moved into a less
 favorable thermodynamic environment by that time.  Therefore,
 gradual weakening is expected, and Amanda is likely to degenerate to
 a remnant low in about 3 days.  The NHC official forecast is
 unchanged from the previous advisory and is fairly close to the
 intensity consensus IVCN.
 
 Fixes based on microwave data indicate that Amanda's center began
 meandering and drifting eastward during the past 12 hours.  The
 initial motion is 050/2 kt, but that estimate is highly uncertain.
 The steering pattern around Amanda is complicated at the moment.
 An elongated mid-level ridge extends from the Four Corners region
 of the U.S. southeastward along the length of Mexico, while a broad
 mid-level trough covers much of the area west of the Baja
 California peninsula.  These features should push Amanda slowly
 northeastward during the next 48 hours while the cyclone still has
 some vertical coherency.  Once it becomes a remnant low, Amanda
 will be located in very weak low-level flow and will likely meander
 or drift southwestward on days 3 through 5.  The new NHC track
 forecast is farther east than the previous forecast due to the
 relocated initial position.  It is not, however, quite as far east
 as the GFS, ECMWF, or multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0900Z 14.6N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 15.0N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 15.8N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 16.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/0600Z 17.2N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  31/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/0600Z 16.0N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg