077 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 280238
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014
 
 Amanda's cloud pattern continues to lose organization. Several
 microwave overpasses during the past 6 to 8 hours show that the
 center of the cyclone is exposed to the south of the nearest deep
 convection and is located farther south than previous estimated.
 Late-afternoon visible imagery confirmed these findings, with
 geostationary imagery also showing the convection warming and
 shrinking in coverage.  The degradation in organization has resulted
 in a significant decrease of satellite intensity estimates since
 this afternoon.  The initial intensity is somewhat uncertain since
 the Dvorak technique does not work well for rapidly weakening
 cyclones but is reduced to 60 kt based on a blend of T- and CI
 numbers from TAFB and NESDIS SAB. Additional weakening is likely as
 south-southwesterly shear, the entrainment of drier and more stable
 air, and a cooler ocean surface take their toll on Amanda.  Even
 though the shear is forecast to decrease in 24 to 36 hours, it
 appears that it will be too late for the cyclone to overcome the
 combined effect of these negative factors for intensification.
 Remnant low status is now forecast in 72 hours, although it could
 occur sooner.  The official forecast is lower relative to the
 previous one and near but a bit lower than a combination of the
 multi-model consensus, Decay-SHIPS, and LGEM.
 
 Center fixes suggest that the motion had been west-northwesterly
 throughout the day, and the initial motion estimate is left of
 the previous one or 305 degrees at 3 kt.  The cyclone remains
 embedded in a weak steering environment between a low- to mid-level
 ridge to the east-northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough to the
 northwest.  This synoptic pattern should allow for a generally slow
 northward or north-northeastward motion for the next few days before
 Amanda degenerates into a remnant low and turns westward or
 southwestward.  Should Amanda weaken faster than forecast, little
 motion is expected, and its remnants could turn eastward in an
 anomalous low-level westerly flow.  The official forecast is on the
 far western side of the guidance envelope, and is much slower than
 the previous forecast due primarily to the more southern initial
 position.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0300Z 14.6N 112.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 15.0N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 15.8N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 16.5N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  31/0000Z 17.1N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/0000Z 16.8N 111.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain