460 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 272035
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014
 
 Amanda's cloud pattern has deteriorated in organization today.
 Although the cyclone is producing some very intense convection, the
 thunderstorms are not particularly well organized, and there is
 little evidence of banding features.  The current intensity
 estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak
 estimate from NESDIS SAB - however, this may be generous.  The
 weakening of the hurricane may be partially due to its slow
 movement, and the resultant upwelling of cooler ocean waters.
 Although the vertical shear is predicted to diminish over the next
 day or two, drier air and lower sea surface temperatures are
 likely to induce continued weakening.  The official wind speed
 forecast is very close to the latest Decay-SHIPS and intensity
 model consensus guidance.
 
 The hurricane continues to plod north-northwestward at 4
 kt between a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast and a weak
 trough to its northwest.  Steering currents are forecast to remain
 weak for the next several days, but most of the track models show
 the tropical cyclone turning northward and then northeastward over
 the next couple of days into a slight weakness in the ridge over
 northwestern Mexico.  Late in the forecast period, a northeast-
 southwest oriented ridge extending across the Baja California
 peninsula should cause Amanda to turn southwestward. The official
 track forecast is only slightly west of the previous one and close
 to the latest dynamical model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/2100Z 15.0N 112.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 15.6N 112.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  29/0600Z 17.3N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  29/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  30/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  31/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch