279 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 270235
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
 
 Amanda's cloud pattern had been reasonably well organized during
 the day, with the cyclone maintaining a small Central Dense Overcast
 and an intermittent but faint eye.  The eye has since disappeared
 and the convective structure has become increasingly less symmetric,
 presumably as a consequence of an increase in southerly vertical
 wind shear.  The cloud pattern has also recently become elongated
 poleward, with little to no outflow noted to the south. Using a
 blend of Dvorak T- and CI numbers and recent satellite trends...the
 advisory wind speed is reduced to 90 kt.
 
 Center fixes indicate that Amanda has moved somewhat erratically
 during the day...but smoothing through these yields an initial
 motion of 340/04. The cyclone is embedded in a region of weak
 steering flow between a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
 and a mid- to upper-level trough to the west.  This pattern should
 steer the cyclone slowly northward during the next couple of days.
 After that time, the forecast becomes more challenging as the
 model spread increases significantly.  The GFS forecasts Amanda to
 remain a deeper cyclone longer and therefore moves it much farther
 northeast, while the ECMWF shows the cyclone decoupling sooner and
 interacting with a disturbance to the its east.  As a result, Amanda
 or its remnants in the ECMWF solution move generally eastward
 without gaining much latitude.  Given the uncertainty, the official
 forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and a little to
 the east of the previous forecast beyond 36 hours.
 
 Global models show the shear at its worst during the next 24 hours
 and then slowly decreasing as the mid- to upper-level trough
 affecting the cyclone lifts out.  Even though upper-level winds are
 forecast to become anticyclonic late in the period...what remains of
 the Amanda should be moving over cooler waters and within a region
 of substantially drier and more stable air in the wake of the
 aforementioned trough.  Thus, it would seem that the shear
 debilitates Amanda and the other negative factors cause the cyclone
 to degenerate into a remnant low.  The official forecast is lower
 than the previous one and is a blend of the multi-model intensity
 consensus ICON and LGEM.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  27/1200Z 14.2N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  28/0000Z 14.9N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  28/1200Z 15.4N 112.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  29/0000Z 15.9N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  30/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  31/0000Z 17.0N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  01/0000Z 16.9N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain