211 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 260833
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
 
 Amanda has not changed much during the last several hours.  The
 eye of the hurricane, although slightly ragged in appearance at
 times, remains evident with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding
 the center.  Earlier microwave data showed a pronounced dry slot
 wrapping into the eastern portion of the circulation, however, the
 latest images suggest it might be, at least temporally, moistening
 back up in that area.  An average of the latest Dvorak
 classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support
 an initial wind speed of 120 kt.
 
 The hurricane is expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning
 later today due to the combined influences of southerly to
 southwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and decreasing sea surface
 temperatures.  Amanda is forecast to weaken to a remnant low in 4
 to 5 days, when most of the models show the low- and mid-level
 centers of the cyclone decoupling.  The NHC intensity forecast is an
 update of the previous one and is in line with the majority of the
 guidance.
 
 The system is moving slowly north-northwestward, and the latest
 initial motion estimate is 340/4.  This general motion is predicted
 to continue for the next 48 hours while the hurricane remains
 embedded in the flow between a trough to its west and a ridge to its
 east over Mexico.  Beyond a couple of days, the weakening tropical
 cyclone is expected to drift northeastward or become stationary when
 it is forecast to be more influenced by the low-level steering flow.
 The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west to be in better
 agreement with the latest consensus aids, TVCE and FSSE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/0900Z 13.1N 111.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 13.8N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  27/0600Z 14.8N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  27/1800Z 15.7N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  28/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  29/0600Z 16.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  30/0600Z 17.3N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  31/0600Z 17.8N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi