121 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 260240
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
 Since Amanda peaked in intensity earlier today, there has been
 some erosion of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant
 of the cyclone, likely due to onset of moderate south-southwesterly
 wind shear.  A pronounced dry slot is also noted wrapping around the
 southern half of the circulation in geostationary and microwave
 imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and
 the initial intensity is set to 125 kt, based on blend of Final-T
 and CI numbers.
 
 The initial motion is 335/03.  The cyclone is located between a
 mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid-/upper-level trough
 to the west.  A weak deep-layer south-southeasterly to southerly
 flow between these two features should steer Amanda north-
 northwestward and then northward during the next few days. A turn
 toward the north-northeast is forecast in about 72 hours when the
 aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough approaches the
 cyclone. After that time, a much weaker Amanda should stall or
 begin to drift westward or southwestward as a shallow feature in the
 trade wind flow.  The model guidance this cycle has shifted westward
 again, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction.  It
 lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, nearly midway
 between the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus TVCE
 through 72 hours and south of the previous forecast late in the
 period.
 
 Moderate to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear,
 combined with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along
 the forecast track, should cause Amanda to quickly weaken during the
 next few days. In about 3 days, the model guidance shows the low-
 and mid-level circulations of Amanda decoupling as the cyclone
 interacts with the trough to its west.  The entrainment of
 substantially drier and more stable air should then cause whatever
 remains of Amanda to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The
 official forecast is slightly lower than the previous one in the
 short term and close to the multi-model consensus ICON.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/0300Z 12.6N 111.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 13.0N 111.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 15.0N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  30/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  31/0000Z 18.0N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain