111 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 251458
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
 Amanda has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning, although
 the hurricane is likely near its peak intensity. The 15 n mi
 diameter eye remains quite distinct in infrared and first-light
 visible satellite imagery, and a solid ring of cloud tops as cold
 as -75C surround the eye. Subjective classifications at 1200 UTC
 from TAFB and SAB were T7.0/140 kt and T6.5/127 kt, respectively.
 The ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T6.6/130 kt, and those values
 have continued to steadily increase to T6.8/135 kt as of 1330 UTC.
 A blend of these intensity estimates easily support increasing the
 intensity to 135 kt, which is just below category 5 strength on the
 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
 
 Amanda appears to have stalled during the past few hours and is now
 drifting slowly northward or north-northwestward at around 2 kt, a
 motion that has been well forecast in previous advisories over the
 past 2 days. Amanda is expected to maintain a general northward
 motion over the next 72 hours as the hurricane moves into a
 combined southerly steering between a mid-/upper-level trough to its
 west and a mid-level ridge to its east. By days 4 and 5, Amanda is
 expected to be a significantly weakened and more shallow cyclone
 that is forecast to slow down and turn westward under the influence
 of a large low-level subtropical ridge located from Baja California
 westward into the central Pacific Ocean. The NHC track forecast is
 similar to the previous advisory and lies near a blend of the FSSE
 and TVCE models.
 
 Amanda has likely reached its peak intensity, or is very close to
 it. Although the SHIPS intensity model indicates SSTs warmer than
 29C exists beneath and ahead of the hurricane, various SST analysis
 products at 1200 UTC this morning indicate that cold upwelling has
 already begun beneath the cyclone, and this cold upwelling should be
 exacerbated even further now the cyclone is moving at a forward
 speed of only 2 kt. As a result, steady weakening is expected within
 the next 12 hours or so. By 36 hours and beyond, southerly to
 southwesterly winds shear is forecast to increase to more than 20
 kt, which should further enhance the weakening process. By day 5,
 the global models are in good agreement on the low- and upper-level
 circulations decoupling, which could result in Amanda becoming a
 remnant low at that time. The official intensity forecast is similar
 to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity model
 consensus IVCN, which is well below the SHIPS and LGEM models
 through 36 hours.
 
 Amanda is now the strongest May hurricane on record in the eastern
 Pacific basin during the satellite era. If Amanda were to reach an
 intensity of 140 kt, it would become the earliest category 5
 hurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Ava of 1973.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/1500Z 11.8N 111.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 12.2N 111.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 13.0N 111.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 14.0N 111.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 15.0N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 17.6N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 18.6N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart