978 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 232032
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
 
 Visible and microwave imagery suggest that Amanda's low- and
 mid-level circulation centers may be offset from each other due to
 some southerly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.  However, convective
 banding continues to increase, and overall the system is taking on a
 more circular appearance.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
 have risen to T2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is held
 at 35 kt for this advisory.  With relatively light shear and sea
 surface temperatures around 29C, Amanda is forecast to continue
 strengthening at least for the next 3 days or so.  The intensity
 guidance has trended upward, and the LGEM and HWRF have now come in
 line with the SHIPS and GFDL models by showing Amanda reaching
 hurricane status in a few days.  The SHIPS RI index continues to run
 high, and several of the models suggest that Amanda could reach
 hurricane strength by 36 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast has been
 bumped upward, but further modifications may be required in future
 advisories if faster intensification appears to be setting in.
 
 Amanda is moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak
 mid-level anticyclone centered over Mexico, and the initial motion
 is 290/3 kt.  With the anticyclone expected to weaken further,
 Amanda is likely to creep west-northwestward for the next 2 to 3
 days.  The global models indicate that a mid-level low will form
 along 130W by day 3, and that feature should help turn Amanda toward
 the north at a slightly faster speed by the end of the forecast
 period.  With the exception of the HWRF model, the remainder of the
 track guidance agrees on this slow northward turn.  The track
 guidance envelope has contracted a bit, and no significant changes
 to the previous NHC track were required.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/2100Z 11.0N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 11.2N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  24/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  25/0600Z 11.8N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  25/1800Z 12.0N 111.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  26/1800Z 12.5N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  27/1800Z 14.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  28/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg