827 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 231456
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...RETRANSMITTED
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
 
 Convection has been gradually filling in near the center and taking
 on a more pronounced banding structure during the past few hours.
 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt at 1200 UTC, but
 the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are running around 40 kt.
 In addition, recent AMSU intensity estimates yielded 38 kt and 44
 kt.  Based on the higher objective numbers, and the overall increase
 in convective organization since 1200 UTC, the depression is being
 upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda at this time.  The initial
 intensity is set at 35 kt based on a consensus of the subjective and
 objective numbers.
 
 Amanda's initial motion is a slow 295/4 kt.  The storm is located to
 the southwest of a fairly weak mid-level anticyclone over central
 Mexico and to the south of a large deep-layer low over southern
 California.  The anticyclone is forecast to weaken during the next
 couple of days, while the deep-layer low slides almost due eastward
 across the southwestern U.S.  As a result, Amanda is expected to
 remain in weak steering flow, and its motion should remain less than
 5 kt during the next 5 days.  Amanda is now expected to turn
 northward by day 5 due to mid-level ridging redeveloping over
 Mexico and a mid-level low forming near 130W.  The GFS has had the
 most dramatic shift in track since yesterday and now shows Amanda
 turning northward by the end of the forecast period.  The updated
 NHC forecast has been shifted a bit to the right of the previous
 one now that there is a little more agreement among the models on a
 northward turn.
 
 Amanda is expected to remain in a relatively light-shear
 environment for the next 3 days or so, and therefore at least
 gradual strengthening is anticipated.  Although upwelling of
 cold water could be a concern due to Amanda's slow forecast motion,
 upper ocean heat content is expected to increase along the
 cyclone's path.  Due to these favorable conditions, the SHIPS RI
 index still supports a significant potential (about a 50 percent
 chance of a 25-kt increase over the next 24 hours) of rapid
 intensification.  All of the models have been trending toward a
 higher peak intensity, led by the SHIPS and GFDL, which both make
 Amanda a hurricane by 48 hours.  The new NHC forecast is not quite
 that aggressive, but it does now show Amanda reaching hurricane
 strength in about 3 days or so.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/1500Z 10.9N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/0000Z 11.1N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  24/1200Z 11.5N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  25/1200Z 11.9N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  28/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg