469 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 222047
 TCDEP1
 ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
 TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014
 
 Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure well to the
 southwest of Mexico has gradually become better organized during the
 past 12 to 24 hours, and a 1708 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the
 system has a sufficiently well-defined center.  Therefore,
 advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of
 the eastern North Pacific season.  The initial intensity is set at
 25 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T1.5 from
 both TAFB and SAB.
 
 The depression has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest
 while located on the edge of a mid-level ridge extending west from
 Mexico, and the initial motion estimate is 285/3 kt.  The depression
 is expected to remain just to the west of the ridge and to the south
 of a deep-layer cyclone centered over California, which will likely
 keep it in a weak steering environment for the next 3 to 4 days.  In
 fact, the ECMWF model even shows the depression becoming nearly
 stationary or meandering for a few days due to the weak steering.
 The official forecast shows a relatively slow track toward the
 west-northwest during the next 5 days and is close to the model
 consensus TVCE.
 
 The depression is embedded in an environment of light vertical
 shear, which will likely support at least gradual intensification
 during the next few days.  There is some disagreement among the
 intensity models as to how much strengthening will occur, however.
 For example, the statistical LGEM keeps the depression below
 tropical storm strength for about 48 hours.  On the other hand, the
 SHIPS RI index indicates a 42e of a 25-kt increase in winds
 within the next 24 hours.  With the RI index relatively high, the
 official forecast is higher than the LGEM for the first few days.
 By days 4 and 5, vertical shear is expected to strengthen, and the
 intensity is forecast to level off or decrease by the end of the
 forecast period.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
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