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 122 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 292048
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007
  
 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ALVIN USING
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...HOWEVER A MICROWAVE PASS
 FROM SSMI-S HELPED TO RE-POSITION THE CENTER BACK TOWARD THE EAST A
 BIT.  AFTER A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING... THE
 CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED AND DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT DURING
 THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO.  AT 1338Z...A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A
 COUPLE OF RELIABLE 35 KT VECTORS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
 QUADRANT...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF 40 KT VECTORS.  BASED ON THE
 DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.  DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND WARM
 WATERS...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO STILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
 SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/2.  ALVIN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF
 RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
 TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALVIN TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE
 CYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
 PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/2100Z 12.6N 114.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     30/0600Z 12.6N 114.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     30/1800Z 12.6N 115.6W    40 KT
  36HR VT     31/0600Z 12.6N 116.7W    45 KT
  48HR VT     31/1800Z 12.6N 117.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     01/1800Z 12.5N 119.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     02/1800Z 12.3N 120.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     03/1800Z 12.0N 122.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI
  
 
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