328 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 270231
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2007
  
 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTHWEST OF
 MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING OVER THE
 CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25
 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON ALL THIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/4.  WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
 MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 115W...
 WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REGION WEST OF
 115W.  THIS LEAVES THE DEPRESSION IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. 
 THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
 RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AS FORECAST BY
 THE GFDL...THE ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
 UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH 120 HR.  A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR IS
 THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL FORM EAST OF THE
 DEPRESSION...AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS. 
 SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THIS COULD CAUSE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E TO
 HAVE ERRATIC MOTION.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DIFLUENT
 SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
 DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
 OVER WARM WATER FOR 48-72 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 60 KT IN 72
 HR...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL FORECASTS.  AFTER
 THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER GRADUALLY COOLING
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0300Z 12.6N 110.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     27/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.4N 112.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     28/1200Z 12.3N 113.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     29/0000Z 12.3N 114.4W    55 KT
  72HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N 116.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     31/0000Z 12.5N 118.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN