315 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 290250
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008
  
 THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA HAS BEEN
 GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION TODAY. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
 SUGGESTED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THE
 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T2.0...
 SUGGESTING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER THIN...CONFINED
 MOSTLY TO A FEW BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH ONE
 SMALL BAND HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
 TWO. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT... SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/3.
 THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW
 TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
 DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
 AGREES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY...WITH A BEND TO
 THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHIN THE GYRE AND TO THE SOUTH
 OF THE GULF RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
 THE 12Z UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TAKING THE SYSTEM
 INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF
 THE COASTLINE RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK
 ERRORS COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
 LANDFALL.
  
 WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL
 SUPPORT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
 IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
 WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS
 THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  NEITHER THE
 GFDL...HWRF...OR LGEM MODELS SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
 PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
 FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
 REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
 ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 10.2N  86.5W    25 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 10.8N  86.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 12.0N  86.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 13.7N  87.4W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME