398 
 WTNT41 KNHC 141434
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
 1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016
 
 Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.
 A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass
 of deep convection.  Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level
 trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the
 center - indicative of a tropical transition.  It is very unusual to
 have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the
 upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg
 C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean.  The
 resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the
 tropical transition and intensification of Alex.  With these
 changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most
 of the Azores islands.
 
 The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the
 analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5.  Only slight additional
 intensification seems possible since the system will be passing
 over even colder waters during the next day or two.  In 36 hours,
 the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
 extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area
 at high latitude.  The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose
 its identity after 48 hours.
 
 The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt.  Alex is
 being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating
 around a larger trough to the northwest.  This should cause the
 cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate
 over the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is very
 similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus
 of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.
 
 Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since
 1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of
 1955.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/1500Z 31.5N  28.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 34.3N  27.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 38.9N  27.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 45.3N  28.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  16/1200Z 53.0N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch